Israel may strike Iran within the next year if it concludes Tehran is moving to restore high-level uranium enrichment, European diplomats told Al-Monitor on Saturday.
One Western diplomat said a new campaign would be “short and intense” but strategically limited. “Iran will evidently retaliate with a missile launch, perhaps hitting buildings the way it did last time,” the diplomat said, adding that the fundamental balance of power would remain unchanged.
Enrichment described as the main red line
The current post-war equilibrium is deeply unstable, Raz Zimmt of the Institute for National Security Studies told Al-Monitor. Israel, he added, has yet to define precise red lines on Iran’s ballistic missile program, but a return to enrichment, weaponization work or attempts to recover the roughly 408 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent believed lost in the June attacks would almost certainly trigger a response.
“The more time passes without the United States and Iran reaching a nuclear agreement, the more likely a new round of conflict becomes,” Zimmt said.
Stalled diplomacy and Iranian pressure
Iran is rebuilding its air defenses, missile systems and protective measures around nuclear sites – a process Zimmt said could continue for up to a year without prompting an Israeli strike. But he warned Iran is effectively stuck in a “no war, no peace” posture, a phrase invoked by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with sanctions eroding the economy while enrichment remains constrained.
Khamenei’s recent remark that the US is “not worthy” of engagement has further complicated prospects for diplomacy. Israeli officials argue any future US-Iran deal must cap enrichment at 3.67 percent, restore intrusive inspections and resolve the fate of the missing enriched uranium. Without those terms, some say, sanctions relief would be unjustified.
Zimmt noted Washington shows little urgency. Trump, he said, appears convinced the 2025 strikes destroyed Iran’s program – a view that reduces US pressure and leaves Israel preparing for what it sees as an increasingly likely confrontation.